Super Bowl and the Markets...
There's almost no correlation, but that won't stop us from placing our bets
It’s here - Super Bowl Sunday!
This is by far one of my favorite weekends of the year. Even without the traditional Super Bowl party or my team involved, there’s plenty to root for and enjoy. Whether it’s the game itself, commercials or the halftime show (btw, I still prefer Frisbee Dogs), there’s something for everyone.
Oh wait, I forgot the most important element of the big game - GAMBLING!
According to CNBC and the American Gaming Association, approximately 7.2 million people will place online wagers for the Super Bowl, generating $4.3 billion in bets. Those are just the legal bets placed in the 20 states where gambling is permitted.
That doesn’t include the billions of dollars that will exchange hands in side bets, prop bets and the friendly office box pool. Talk about having a rooting interest. Even my wife gets involved. I’ll never forget her asking me who scored that home run for the Cowboys back in the day. She’s a true fan.
Clearly, it doesn’t take a true fan to come up with a gambling strategy. Like trading, everyone has their own way of picking winners. One of my favorite systems is the Diane Chambers method - shown below in this Cheers clip.
Whether your system involves colors, strength of the animals playing or whose state flower is more powerful than the other—you do what works for you! I will most definitely mock it, but if it works, then more power to you.
Super Bowl and market correlation…
Let me be clear - there is none. This is a fun exercise. The sample size is too small and it’s too random. However, it will never stop me from enjoying the data that comes out each year from Ryan Detrick. Ryan provides some of the most useful and entertaining market stats on Twitter and is a must follow.
Let’s look at what the Super Bowl may mean for the markets. Who knows, maybe this is a system endorsed by the likes of a Diane Chambers? I don’t endorse it. I just love looking at the stats.
So based on this small sample size, we should be rooting for the Bucs. In their one win, the market rallied 26.4%. However, a Chiefs victory has led to an average gain of 8.1% based on their two wins. Advantage - Bucs
Well what about the Tom Brady factor? Ryan shares that with us too.
Now Ryan fails to mention the years where Brady and the Pats cheated to gain victories over the Rams and Eagles, but the stat are the stats. Mr. Brady’s results are mixed with an average gain of 0.5% per appearance. Advantage Mahomes and Chiefs.
What about AFC vs NFC? Lets look…
History tells us we should root for the NFC. But what about those of us with a recency bias? The AFC has been hot lately…
Advantage - Chiefs.
Clearly if you believe there is a correlation between Super Bowl outcome and the markets, you may want to root for the Chiefs.
I took to Twitter to see who my limited audience liked. Looks like the bookmakers got this one right, as things were pretty even across the board.
55% of the people like the Chiefs to cover. 55% also like Over 56.
While we’re at it, let’s check in on Le Le the panda…
As for my prediction, I played out a few scenarios in my mind. I saw the Bucs 21 Cheifs 17 if it became a defensive game. In a high scoring situation, I have the Chiefs 37 Bucs 31. I think I have to go somewhere in the middle of that range.
Official prediction… I agree with Le Le the panda - Chiefs 31 Bucs 27
What’s your pick and better yet, what’s your favorite prop bet? The official Draft King’s prop bet list is here.
Some of my prop bets include an in house tails bet vs my kid. Tails never fails.
Byron Pringle Over 7.5 yards receiving -112. Long Shot MVP pick - J.P.P +7000. Total yards shortest successful FG Over 27.5 yards. First TD scored - Cameron Brate +2200. Any Cameron Brate TD +325. Total Interceptions Over -1.5. Total Players to Attempt a Pass Over 2.5 +155. Passing Yards Tom Brady Under 295.5 -118.